This article is the first in a three-part series called Dare to Leap. It’s written for CEOs and boards leading through uncertainty, and it explores a simple but uncomfortable truth: the companies that come out ahead in tough times are the ones that act boldly while others hesitate. Part 1 explains the concept and why it works, Part 2 shares the stories of leaders who proved it right (and wrong), and Part 3 lays out a practical playbook for how to apply it today.
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Learning how to lead during uncertain times can feel like running on shifting ground. Interest rates are unsettled, consumer confidence swings week by week, and every headline seems designed to make you second-guess your next move. The natural instinct for most leaders is to play it safe, hold onto cash, delay projects, freeze hiring, and wait for the storm to pass.
That feels safe, but history tells us it’s often the riskiest move of all. The companies that come out of downturns stronger are rarely the ones that cut to the bone and sat on the sidelines. They are the ones that leaned into uncertainty, made moves when it felt uncomfortable, and secured advantages while others hesitated.
Why Waiting Costs More Than Acting
The record is clear. During the 2008 recession, companies that increased their R&D budgets grew revenues about 15 percent faster in the recovery than those that cut spending. During the COVID downturn, businesses that invested in digital tools gained more than double the share of competitors that held back. The same pattern shows up again and again. Leaders who understand how to lead during uncertain times don’t just survive; they position their organizations to pull ahead.
The Vacuum Others Leave Behind
Economists have a term for what happens in downturns: a vacuum of opportunity. When times get tough, most companies slam on the brakes. Expansion projects are shelved, budgets are cut, hiring freezes lock in place, and cash piles up on balance sheets. That collective hesitation creates space. Costs come down, competition thins out, and people, partnerships, and ideas that were out of reach suddenly become available.
One of the biggest missed opportunities is talent. When other companies reduce staff, highly skilled people enter the market. A leader who is willing to hire in that moment can build a stronger team than would ever be possible in stable times. The same goes for deals with suppliers, technology providers, or real estate. When most leaders are sitting on their hands, those willing to move can secure long-term advantages at a discount. Think of it like musical chairs. While most players are circling nervously, hoping the music doesn’t stop, the bold leader sits down early and claims the spot.
The “Discomfort Dividend”
Acting first during uncertain times never feels good. It feels uncomfortable to expand while others are cutting, or to hire when the headlines are filled with layoffs. But the leaders who can push through that discomfort often earn what I call the “discomfort dividend.”
It’s not about being reckless, it’s about making smart, calculated bets at a time when those bets feel hardest to make. Hiring is the best example. Adding to your payroll when everyone else is shrinking theirs feels risky, but if that hire turns out to be the kind of person who drives growth or innovation for years, the payoff far outweighs the discomfort you felt when you signed the offer.
Our hesitation in these moments has less to do with math and more to do with psychology. Behavioral economists have long noted that people fear losses more than they value equivalent gains. A million-dollar investment feels scarier than the comfort of saving a million dollars, yet history shows that missing the opportunity to act can be far more costly than the money you think you are protecting.
Take Blockbuster. In 2000, they had the chance to buy Netflix for $50 million. They passed. At the time, it seemed prudent; why bet on an unproven company during an uncertain economy? But that “safe” choice ended up being the beginning of the end. Netflix leaned into the discomfort, doubled down on streaming, and now owns the very market Blockbuster once dominated.
Standing Still Isn’t Neutral
Here’s the part that many leaders overlook. Standing still isn’t neutral; it is giving ground. When you wait, your competitors who are willing to act begin pulling away. They win the customers you hesitated to approach. They hire the talent you passed on. They secure the suppliers and partners you thought you could revisit later. Once they have those advantages, they are not easy to dislodge.
It becomes a spiral. Sales dip because competitors are more aggressive. Morale weakens as employees sense stagnation. Investors shift their attention to companies showing momentum. What started as short-term caution slowly turns into long-term decline. Kodak is a reminder of how quickly that slide can happen. In the 2000s, Kodak was flush with profits from film, but the company hesitated to commit to digital photography. They thought waiting was safe. In the meantime, startups like Instagram, which launched during a downturn, stepped in and shaped the future of the industry. By 2012, Kodak was bankrupt.
What This Means for Leaders in 2025
The lesson is clear. Uncertain times don’t just carry risk; they carry opportunity. The leaders who truly know how to lead during uncertain times move first, build confidence through action, and teach their teams to get comfortable being uncomfortable. This doesn’t mean throwing caution to the wind. It means recognizing that bold, well-timed action in moments of hesitation can pay off many times over.
So here’s the question I would challenge you with. What’s one decision you’ve been putting off because the timing doesn’t feel right? A hire, a project, an investment? What would it look like to make that move now, while others are still circling?
Because in moments like these, waiting feels safe, but acting first often makes all the difference.
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In Part 2: Leap Lessons, we’ll look at the real stories behind this idea, from global giants like Microsoft and Apple to Minnesota companies like Best Buy and Fingerhut, and see what happens when leaders lean in versus hold back.
