In Part 1, we talked about the “discomfort dividend,” the idea that acting boldly in uncertain times can create advantages that last long after conditions stabilize. In this second part, we look at how to grow during uncertain times, sharing real stories of leaders and companies that leaned in when others pulled back.
These stories span industries and geographies, from Silicon Valley giants to Minnesota household names. The pattern is the same. In moments of uncertainty, those who leaned in redefined their industries, while those who waited watched the game move past them.
National Icons That Bet Boldly
Take Microsoft. The company was born in the shadow of the 1975 recession. At the time, unemployment was high and inflation was squeezing households. Still, Bill Gates and Paul Allen bet on the personal computer. It was hardly a safe move. Even IBM, the established leader, hesitated. Yet Microsoft pressed ahead, developed MS-DOS, and secured a deal that eventually gave them more than 90 percent of the operating system market. What felt uncomfortable at the time became the foundation for one of the most valuable companies in the world.
Apple offers another lesson. In the early 2000s, after the dot-com bust and the shock of 9/11, the company was bleeding money. Many expected Steve Jobs to slash spending and wait it out. Instead, he doubled down on a product nobody was asking for: the iPod. It was a gamble in a market that seemed tapped out. Within a few years, that one bet sparked a resurgence that eventually led to the iPhone and reshaped consumer technology.
Netflix faced a similar crossroads in the early 2000s. They were offered a buyout by Blockbuster for $50 million, a deal that would have spared them the risks of an uncertain future. Reed Hastings and his team said no. They pressed forward with DVD-by-mail and then streaming, hiring aggressively even as the broader tech industry contracted. The result speaks for itself. Netflix now has hundreds of millions of subscribers worldwide, while Blockbuster is gone.
Amazon made its boldest moves during the 2008 recession. While other retailers were cutting jobs and pulling back, Jeff Bezos invested heavily in logistics and cloud computing. Those moves did not pay off overnight, but they positioned Amazon to dominate both retail and cloud services in the years that followed.
These companies prove that the uncomfortable choice often pays off. Microsoft, Apple, Netflix, and Amazon all leaned into uncertainty, expanded when others cut back, and secured advantages that competitors struggled to overcome.
Talent as the Overlooked Advantage
What many of these success stories share is not just investment in products or technology, but investment in people. Netflix grew its workforce during the dot-com slump, hiring engineers and developers at a moment when competitors were shedding talent. Amazon increased its headcount in 2008 while other retailers were shrinking theirs.
This is not just history, it is a reminder for today’s CEOs. The smartest companies understand that hiring during uncertain times is not a risk, it is an opportunity. Adding talent when others are cutting back is often the most overlooked way to grow during uncertainty.
Minnesota’s Lessons, Close to Home
You do not have to look only at national giants to see this pattern. Minnesota has its own examples of companies that won or lost based on whether they embraced discomfort or avoided it.
Fingerhut, once a powerhouse in mail-order retail, dismissed e-commerce in the early 2000s. Leadership assumed online shopping was a fad for a niche audience and doubled down on catalogs. At the same time, Amazon was investing billions in online retail and logistics, even though its own survival was still in question. Fingerhut went bankrupt. Amazon became the standard.
Best Buy offers another cautionary tale. In the years leading up to the 2008 recession, the company was a leader in electronics retail. But when the downturn hit, leadership pulled back on e-commerce and focused on opening more stores. It felt safer to stick with what they knew. Amazon, once again, leaned in the opposite direction, expanding online and hiring aggressively to scale fulfillment. Best Buy lost ground it has never fully regained.
More recently, Polaris faced its own test. As inflation spiked and supply chains faltered, the company delayed investments in electric vehicles. Competitors, particularly from overseas, moved quickly into that space and undercut Polaris with cheaper battery-powered models. By the time Polaris was ready to act, the window to lead had already closed, and they were left fighting from behind.
How to Grow When Others Pull Back
Across industries, the story repeats. When the economy weakens, most companies respond by pausing investments and pulling back. This creates openings: talent becomes available, assets get cheaper, and markets quiet down. The leaders who step into that vacuum secure advantages that compound as conditions improve. Those who wait lose ground, and in many cases, never recover it.
What stands out in both the national and Minnesota examples is how often talent played a decisive role. The boldest companies did not just spend money differently, they built teams differently. Recruiting became a competitive advantage because they were willing to make moves others were not.
What Leaders Can Take Away
If there is one lesson from these stories, it is that discomfort avoided today can become dominance lost tomorrow. The bold moves of Microsoft, Apple, Netflix, and Amazon show how discomfort can pay off. The struggles of Fingerhut, Best Buy, and Polaris show how quickly hesitation can erode even the strongest positions.
The takeaway for today’s CEOs is not that every risk should be embraced, but that the instinct to pause should be questioned. The strongest leadership lessons from uncertain times show that growth does not happen by waiting; it happens by acting early. The companies that understand how to grow during uncertain times, especially by hiring strategically and investing in people, build resilience that outlasts volatility.
The next part of this series moves from stories to action. In Part 3, we will outline a practical framework for making bold moves wisely, including how to weigh risks, set guardrails, and capture the discomfort dividend without overextending.
Because the question is not whether uncertain times create opportunity. They always do. The question is whether you are willing to act before the window closes.
